Silvio Berlusconi considers himself the ultimate survivor. He has been Italy’s Prime Minister three times since 1994 and intends to keep going, for decades if he gets his way. He recently told Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin that he will live to 120, and his doctor once called him “almost immortal.”
While Mr. Belusconi, 74, does appear to be in rude good health, it now looks like his political career may die well before the body does. On Tuesday, the billionaire media magnate, career skirt chaser and prosecutors’ target faces a confidence vote in the Senate, which he’s expected to win, and a second in the government’s lower house, the Chamber of Deputies, which he may not.
James Walston, professor of international relations at the American University of Rome, said Tuesday is “crunch time” for Mr. Berlusconi.
The math suggests he will narrowly lose the Chamber vote. If that happens, he will have to offer his resignation and his centre-right People of Freedom party will fall, two years before his political mandate was to expire. The effort to form a new centre-right coalition government would then begin immediately.
Should it fail, an election would be called while a succession battle gets under way. One of the contenders to replace Mr. Berlusconi is Giulio Tremonti, the respected Minister of Finance and Economy who is credited with saving Italy from economic calamity, if not pain. Italy is Europe’s most indebted country and the prices of its sovereign bonds have been sinking as the debt contagion spreads. Economists fear that a political crisis on top of an economic one would send the bonds plunging, damaging or even reversing Italy’s tentative recovery.
Even if Mr. Berlusconi survives the vote, there is a sense that his government, weakened by defections of one-time allies as his scandal count rises and his popularity falls, will not be long for this world. Indeed, the newspapers are full of comments that l’era di Berlusconi is finally coming to an inglorious end, no matter which way the vote goes.
Mr. Berlusconi was pleading Monday for political longevity. In a remarkably restrained speech before the Senate in Rome, he appealed for support amid the European debt crisis, which has felled Greece and Ireland and threatens to engulf Italy, the third-biggest economy among the 16 European Union countries that share the euro. “If your concern over Italy’s difficult situation is honest and real, then the only possible way forward is renewing confidence in my government,” he said, adding, “We guarantee stability in securing the interests of the country.”
Mr. Berlusconi was once wildly popular in Italy. He had everything –money, beautiful women and villas, ownership of the top-rated AC Milan soccer cluband the calming conviction that Italy would get through the financial and economic crisis with minimal damage. But last summer his ratings began to dip, the result of a string of scandals involving teenage girls, alleged prostitutes and the belief among many voters’ that the aging Lothario was clinging to power merely to make himself immune from the court cases that accuse him of fraud and corruption.
As the scandals gathered pace in the autumn, his government suffered defections. The worst blow came when Gianfranco Fini, the Chamber Speaker who had been one of Mr. Berlusconi’s main allies, yanked his support and launched an internal revolt against the Prime Minister. On Sunday, Mr. Fini used a television interview to denounce Mr. Berlusconi once again, ending any hope that the two men could broker a peace agreement ahead of Tuesday’s confidence vote.
Since then, Mr. Berlusconi has been working frantically to find enough support to win the Chamber vote; it is thought that two or three votes might be enough to swing the battle in his favour. Rome prosecutors have opened an investigation into whether the Berlusconi camp has tried to bribe certain lawmakers, among them three pregnant Opposition deputies who are close to giving birth and were not expected to attend the vote, to support him.
Umberto Bossi, the leader of the increasingly powerful Northern League, an anti-immigrant party that advocates regional autonomy for the wealthy north of Italy, on Monday said Mr. Berlusconi (whom he considers an ally) may step down and seek an election even if he survives the confidence votes. Mr. Berlusconi “cannot govern with a majority of just one,” he told the media.
While Mr. Belusconi, 74, does appear to be in rude good health, it now looks like his political career may die well before the body does. On Tuesday, the billionaire media magnate, career skirt chaser and prosecutors’ target faces a confidence vote in the Senate, which he’s expected to win, and a second in the government’s lower house, the Chamber of Deputies, which he may not.
James Walston, professor of international relations at the American University of Rome, said Tuesday is “crunch time” for Mr. Berlusconi.
The math suggests he will narrowly lose the Chamber vote. If that happens, he will have to offer his resignation and his centre-right People of Freedom party will fall, two years before his political mandate was to expire. The effort to form a new centre-right coalition government would then begin immediately.
Should it fail, an election would be called while a succession battle gets under way. One of the contenders to replace Mr. Berlusconi is Giulio Tremonti, the respected Minister of Finance and Economy who is credited with saving Italy from economic calamity, if not pain. Italy is Europe’s most indebted country and the prices of its sovereign bonds have been sinking as the debt contagion spreads. Economists fear that a political crisis on top of an economic one would send the bonds plunging, damaging or even reversing Italy’s tentative recovery.
Even if Mr. Berlusconi survives the vote, there is a sense that his government, weakened by defections of one-time allies as his scandal count rises and his popularity falls, will not be long for this world. Indeed, the newspapers are full of comments that l’era di Berlusconi is finally coming to an inglorious end, no matter which way the vote goes.
Mr. Berlusconi was pleading Monday for political longevity. In a remarkably restrained speech before the Senate in Rome, he appealed for support amid the European debt crisis, which has felled Greece and Ireland and threatens to engulf Italy, the third-biggest economy among the 16 European Union countries that share the euro. “If your concern over Italy’s difficult situation is honest and real, then the only possible way forward is renewing confidence in my government,” he said, adding, “We guarantee stability in securing the interests of the country.”
Mr. Berlusconi was once wildly popular in Italy. He had everything –money, beautiful women and villas, ownership of the top-rated AC Milan soccer cluband the calming conviction that Italy would get through the financial and economic crisis with minimal damage. But last summer his ratings began to dip, the result of a string of scandals involving teenage girls, alleged prostitutes and the belief among many voters’ that the aging Lothario was clinging to power merely to make himself immune from the court cases that accuse him of fraud and corruption.
As the scandals gathered pace in the autumn, his government suffered defections. The worst blow came when Gianfranco Fini, the Chamber Speaker who had been one of Mr. Berlusconi’s main allies, yanked his support and launched an internal revolt against the Prime Minister. On Sunday, Mr. Fini used a television interview to denounce Mr. Berlusconi once again, ending any hope that the two men could broker a peace agreement ahead of Tuesday’s confidence vote.
Since then, Mr. Berlusconi has been working frantically to find enough support to win the Chamber vote; it is thought that two or three votes might be enough to swing the battle in his favour. Rome prosecutors have opened an investigation into whether the Berlusconi camp has tried to bribe certain lawmakers, among them three pregnant Opposition deputies who are close to giving birth and were not expected to attend the vote, to support him.
Umberto Bossi, the leader of the increasingly powerful Northern League, an anti-immigrant party that advocates regional autonomy for the wealthy north of Italy, on Monday said Mr. Berlusconi (whom he considers an ally) may step down and seek an election even if he survives the confidence votes. Mr. Berlusconi “cannot govern with a majority of just one,” he told the media.
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