Climate draft text signals breakthroughs

Negotiators made breakthroughs in key areas of contention at the Cancun climate talks late Friday, producing a draft text that commits all countries to step up their efforts to limit the rise in global temperatures to less than 2 degrees Celsius and leaves open the possibility of new commitments under the Kyoto Protocol.

In a surprise move, as delegates were preparing for a gruelling overnight session, Mexican chairwoman Patricia Espinosa released draft texts of agreements approved by 50 countries that were charged with finding compromises to what many believed were becoming intractable positions. But the agreements fell well short of an overarching accord that could form the basis of a new treaty, and it remained unclear whether it would pass the full convention.

In an informal session aimed at giving countries the opportunity to object and spark further talks, Ms. Espinosa received a 75-second standing ovation and no objections. She then adjourned to begin a final debate that was expected to last well into the night.

“If this gets approved, we are much further than we thought we would be before coming to Cancun,” said Wendy Trio, climate policy director for Greenpeace. “We now await the response from countries and urge them to adopt it.”

Negotiators from 193 countries have had to marry vastly different approaches that were contained in the 1997 Kyoto agreement and the 2009 Copenhagen Accord, which resulted in non-binding emission pledges from countries such as the United States, China, India and Brazil that were not covered by Kyoto commitments.

The draft text refers to the commitment to extend Kyoto with a new round of emission-reduction targets for the post-2012 period. Japan and Russia had explicitly rejected such an approach, and Russia’s objection was footnoted in the text. Canada had refused to provide a commitment to new Kyoto targets but never ruled it out. Environment Minister John Baird said earlier Friday that the government had not “closed any doors” as negotiators sought to find compromises to keep the talks alive.

A spokesman for Mr. Baird said Friday night that Canadian officials were studying the texts and could not comment on their content.

Zoe Caron, a climate-change researcher with WWF Canada, said the tough decisions on Kyoto have been put off until next year, as Canadian negotiator Guy St. Jacques had earlier suggested they would be. She said the Harper government may simply decide to transform its current 2020 target, made at last year’s Copenhagen Accord, into any new Kyoto deal, though Canada would also face a penalty for missing its 2012 goal.

“Their position is that the Kyoto Protocol is not enough on its own, and I expect they also understand that is it the core element of a larger legal deal [to be negotiated] moving forward,” Ms. Caron said.

The proposed agreements would endorse the view that “climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time” and requires “long-term co-operative action” in order to prevent catastrophic impacts across the planet. And they pledged that countries would consider strengthening the long-term goal to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees, something demanded by small island states who fear the 2-degree target would leave their countries literally under water as a result of rising sea levels.

However, it remains unclear how those ambitious targets will be achieved. In a report released at the beginning of the conference, the United Nations Environment Program said the commitments made under Copenhagen fell far short of what is needed to meet the 2-degree goal. If all countries met the upper end of their promises and delivered all the funding to help poorer countries slow emissions growth, the world would emit 49 gigatonnes of greenhouse gases by 2020, five gigatonnes higher than required to meet the target, the agency said.

Under the proposed deal, countries would set up a "Green Climate Fund" that would manage most of the $100-billion (U.S.) per year promised to poor countries by the developed world; set up technology-transfer programs to help them adopt renewable energy technologies, and fund projects to reduce deforestation and encourage tree planting.

Following the lead of the United States, Canada has pledged to reduce its emissions by 17 per cent from 2005 levels by 2020. Mr. Baird told the summit the Canadian government is working to meet that commitment, though it has yet to produce a plan to get there. Ottawa has introduced new emission standards for automobiles and is moving on ships, airplanes and heavy trucks; it has also promised to pass regulations that will force the power sector to end its reliance on high-emitting coal over the next two decades. But it has not regulated the fastest growing source of emissions: Alberta’s booming oil sands.

In a briefing Friday afternoon, Canadian officials appeared cautiously optimistic that negotiators were closing the gaps in key areas, though Canada was not involved in many of the key sessions.

The United States had insisted the Cancun summit must recognize the political agreement reached in Copenhagen last year, including the emissions pledges. Backed by Canada, the Americans were also insistent that China, India, Brazil and other major developing countries agree to have their plans to reduce the rate of emissions growth monitored and verified by the international community. The developing countries have agreed to a review process, though one that is not as rigorous as the regime for developed countries.

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