Sunday, December 12, 2010

Government fears nuclear war in Middle East



The cables present Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd as being very "supportive" of Israel.

The Federal Government fears a nuclear confrontation between Iran and Israel could draw Australia into another war in the Middle East, according to US diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks and published in Fairfax newspapers today.

The cables present Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd as being very "supportive" of Israel and he is praised for his tough stance against Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

But the cables also reveal serious concerns within Australia's intelligence bureaus that Australia and the US could be drawn into a nuclear war if Iran and Israel come to blows.

Dr Michael Wesley, executive director of the Lowy Institute, says the revelations are interesting but hardly surprising.

"That's the nightmare scenario that's worried a lot of people for a long time," he said.

"Even though Israel hasn't formally acknowledged that it has nuclear weapons, most people understand that it is a nuclear-armed state.

"Obviously with Iran rapidly gaining those capabilities and having made some fairly uncompromising statements about wiping Israel off the face of the map, you would have to think there would be a considerable threat if Iran does get nuclear weapons."

It has been a tough few weeks for Mr Rudd, who has withstood a barrage of embarrassing revelations contained in the WikiLeaks cables.

Among the cables were perceptions within the US embassy that he is a micro-manager as well as more potentially damaging remarks revealing he favours a tough stance against China.

But for now at least it appears Mr Rudd is among friends in Israel.

He is presently touring the Middle East, where he took the time to visit the Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial in Jerusalem.

Mr Rudd paid his respects to those who died in the Holocaust and admitted Australia could have done more to help Jewish people before World War II.

"We as Australia among the other nations of the world attended the conference at Evian in 1938 and we, in Australia, like so many countries around the world, closed our hearts," he said.

"What we did then as a nation was wrong and we know what happened when others did the same."

Embarrassment

Dr Wesley says the WikiLeaks cables with the most potential to harm Australia's foreign policy are the ones with the revelations about China.

"The Chinese are, to use a well-known phrase, brutal realists themselves," he said.

"They had little doubt about where Australia stood, so probably in terms of its embarrassment value, it gives them a chance to exercise a tiny bit of leverage against Rudd in particular.

"But I don't think it's a huge revelation to the Chinese."

Dr Wesley says most of the cables will do little more than embarrass those people named.

"It basically puts some issues on the table that probably the Government would rather not be out in the open," he said.

"A lot of what governments do depends on them keeping their rather frank assessments of each other secret and not in public view.

"If some of this material, for instance, impacts on Australia's image in China or any other country, then that will be a step backwards.

"But in terms of actual hard strategic interests, I don't think it will do a lot of damage."

WikiLeaks has still only released a small percentage of the 250,000 documents it is believed to possess.



Read More

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/13/3091889.htm

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