Fortress Old Trafford, Chelsea's flat form and a welter of statistics point to Manchester United advancing to the semi-finals of the Champions League on Tuesday -- yet one goal changes the whole tie.
United hold the whip hand following Wayne Rooney's goal in their 1-0 quarter-final first-leg win at Stamford Bridge and in most circumstances in the Champions League and for United, that would be that.
Alex Ferguson's team have lost one of their last 30 matches in the competition at Old Trafford and none in the last six years. They have progressed in all 16 European ties where they won the first leg away from home.
This season they have conceded only two goals in nine Champions League games while in the Premier League they have won 15 and drawn one of their home games.
Since the Champions league began only two sides have recovered from a first-leg home defeat to win a knockout tie -- Ajax Amsterdam against Panathinaikos in 1996 and Inter Milan, who recovered from a 1-0 defeat by Bayern Munich with a 3-2 win in Germany last month.
Yet the particular nature of this all-English tie means that such statistics are undermined in a game between two teams who know each other so well.
Although Chelsea have won only one of five away games in all-English Champions League ties, they won at Old Trafford in the Premier League a year ago and know that they need only one goal on Tuesday to swing the advantage their way.
Only two of the teams' last 12 competitive games have been decided by more than one goal so both sides know the Londoners are still very much in the tie.
"Of course Chelsea can do to us at Old Trafford what we've done there," said Ferguson. "We've only got a one-goal lead and we have to be very careful and give a top performance.
"It will be a tough game. The tie is not done."
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